Seasonality
How a stock or index has tended to behave in each month and week over many years.
- Average by month
- Years side by side
- A habit, not a promise
The question it answers
Does this market have a seasonal habit?
Overview
What is Seasonality on MrChart?
Seasonality studies how a stock or index has tended to move in each calendar month across the years on record. MrChart shows the typical return for each month, how often that month closed higher, and the best and worst years behind it, so you can see whether a habit is steady or driven by one unusual year.
On the chart, the Seasonals view goes further by laying years over one another from January to December, with average and median lines. Seasonal patterns describe the past. They are context to help you ask better questions, never a forecast or a promise of what comes next.
In the platform
A closer look at Seasonality
What you get
Why use Seasonality
Average by month
The typical return for each calendar month, with how often it was positive.
Years side by side
Compare this year against the history, not against a single average.
A habit, not a promise
Seasonal patterns describe the past and are context, not a forecast.
How it works
How to use Seasonality in three steps
- 01
Open the seasonality card
Search a ticker and find the seasonality card on its analysis page, which shows all twelve months at a glance.
- 02
Switch the measure
Choose median, average or green rate to redraw the months, and compare them to see which are pulled by an outlier year.
- 03
Select a month or open the chart view
Select a month for its full record, or open Seasonals on the chart to overlay years and pick the range you want.
Who it helps
Where it fits in your day
Spotting a recurring pattern
See whether a stock has often been stronger in some months than others, and how consistent that has been.
Checking this year against history
Overlay this year on earlier ones to see whether it is following the usual path or breaking from it.
Learning why averages mislead
Compare average with median for a month to understand how one extreme year can distort a typical figure.
Questions
Frequently asked questions
What is stock seasonality?
It is the tendency of a stock or market to behave in a similar way during the same time of year, measured from past data. It describes what happened before and does not tell you what will happen.
Is seasonality reliable for predicting returns?
No. A seasonal pattern can fade or reverse, and a month with few years of data says very little. Use it as background context beside other analysis.
What is the green rate?
It is the share of years in which a month closed higher. It is measured from a 50 percent baseline, since a month that rises half the time shows no lean in either direction.
More in Analysis & research
See it on your own screen
Create a free account and open it in the platform. MrChart is an analytics and education platform. It does not give buy or sell recommendations or investment advice.