Prediction Markets
What traders are betting on for elections, rates and events, shown as probabilities.
- Probabilities, not opinions
- Events that move markets
- Watch the odds shift
The question it answers
What does the crowd think will happen?
Overview
What is Prediction Markets on MrChart?
Prediction Markets shows what traders are currently paying for real-world outcomes in finance, crypto and politics, from rate decisions to elections. Each market's price is its implied probability, so the board reads as percentages you can scan, filter by category and compare, with the date each market resolves.
These probabilities are the crowd's pricing, not a MrChart forecast, and a market with little trading can be a weak signal, which the page flags as a thin book. Use it to understand what the crowd expects and how those expectations move when news arrives.
What you get
Why use Prediction Markets
How it works
How to use Prediction Markets in three steps
- 01
Choose a category
Pick all markets, or narrow to finance, crypto or politics.
- 02
Read the probabilities
Each card shows the leading outcome and the probability the crowd gives it, with the date the market resolves.
- 03
Check the quality
Look for the thin book note and the footer showing how many markets were scanned against how many matched.
Who it helps
Where it fits in your day
Reading the room before an event
Before a rate decision or an election, see what probability the crowd assigns to each outcome.
Adding a macro view to your research
Pair the crowd's odds on policy and rates with the stock and economy pages you already use.
Watching expectations change
Return after new information arrives and see how the implied probabilities moved.
Questions
Frequently asked questions
What are prediction markets?
They are markets where people trade contracts that pay out depending on a real-world outcome. The price of a contract can be read as the probability the crowd gives that outcome.
How do I read prediction market odds?
A price shown as a percentage is the implied probability of that outcome. Check the resolution date and whether the market is thin, since a market with little trading says less than a busy one.
Are prediction market odds a forecast from MrChart?
No. They are the crowd's pricing, shown for context and education. A high probability is not a guarantee, and the page includes a disclaimer saying so.
See it on your own screen
Create a free account and open it in the platform. MrChart is an analytics and education platform. It does not give buy or sell recommendations or investment advice.